This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee which is going to be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools for this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice high trophy are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is almost always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round fight usually makes a whole lot of sense. I believe that you can stack the most important event here too, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score highly and according to Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he possess a high ground, but he likely has the maximum ceiling onto the card as well. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK battle on the gambling odds now. Usually when that occurs we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down due to that and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even require a finish to score 100+ points and that’s the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he must score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we are getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become among the very well-known underdogs on the card, however it is chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be so not just would he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I believe if he can win this battle then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favorite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I am actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him since he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style I don’t see him getting more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus much in his career and he has scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. If he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then that pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP because the other men in that $9k range probably score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 47-28 for +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 months!)
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